Bloomberg Picks up on Terrorism in North Caucasus

Interesting perspective on what certainly seems to be an environment that is ripe for an escalation in terrorism leading up to the 2014 Winter Games, this time from Bloomberg.com.  The piece is something of a primer on the situation in the North Caucasus, touching on issues I've discussed to varying degrees (particularly Russia investing $15 billion on tourism in the region, which is something I really want to revisit).  It does also throw some numbers around, discussing the number of suicide bombings/bombers in the region over the last couple of years.  Plus, there's a bonus quote from Chechen head of government/Moscow-backed strongman/comedian Ramzan Kadyrov on the current state of security around Sochi: "There are no serious problems."  Comedy gold. 

All of that you can read for yourselves.  What really got my ski poles up was that the article is the first (at least in my reasonably-exhaustive search) to draw the line directly from the recent events in the Middle East/North Africa to an expected uptick in terror in the North Caucasus.  So, let's talk about that for a second because, really, it's just a throwaway couple lines. 

Grigory Shvedov, chief editor over at Caucasian Knot:

The uprisings across the Middle East may encourage extremists in the predominantly North Caucasus further, according to Shvedov.

“The successful turnover of elites in the Middle East is mesmerizing not just militants, but also hundreds of thousands of practicing Muslims” in the region, he said.

And that's it.  Now, I could spend 5,000 words getting into the specifics on these statements, but my refusal to do that is what separates me from actual academics.  Plus, nobody reads this as it is.  What I will do is throw a few thoughts at the wall and see what sticks. 

Doku Umarov, who heads the non-state Caucasus Emirate, has, as I understand it, at best a vague goal of uniting Muslims in an as yet undefined state under his rule.  There aren't even any clear boundaries for this state.  There are no goals the bring down Russia, simply to end its influence in the region and expel the Moscow-backed regional leaders. 

While some Muslims may, in face, be "mesmerized" by what is happening in the Middle East, Umarov was promising that there would be "rivers of blood," at the very latest, right around the time things got dicey for Mubarak.  Umarov and his followers have taken credit for last year's metro bombing in Moscow, the attack on Domodedovo airport and, from what I read, for the recent attack on Russian tourists.  The first certainly has nothing to do with unrest in the Middle East.  The last two, well, the connection is dubious at best. 

Now, Russia, after years of fighting in the North Caucasus, apparently decided on the innovative strategy addressing this issue through bribery, banking that they can subdue the region by easing the rampant unemployment and turning it into a tourism center.  It is clearly not working and, if Umarov gets his way, it won't get the chance to work.  And, unfortunately, I firmly believe that Medvedev will be forced by both internal and external (read:IOC) pressures to step up the military's presence as 2014 nears.  I think the attacks are going to continue and that I'm going to be writing about this an awful lot in the near future.