NYT Reports on Security Situation in Sochi,

The New York Times has a nice little summary of the security situation surrounding the run-up to the 2014 Sochi Winter Olympics.  It hits the major events (Domodedovo, killing of tourists, civil war in Chechnya), with a little bit of analysis from Dimitri Kozak, who is deputy prime minister and nominally in charge of the building in Sochi:

In an interview, a deputy prime minister, Dmitri N. Kozak, acknowledged that such groups would be likely to try to step up their activities as the Olympics drew closer. But he played down the significance of Sochi’s location, saying that the terrain was so difficult to traverse that it was easier to travel by plane from Moscow — about 850 miles — than over land from Chechnya.

“Concerning geography, I would say that it is an illusion that there is more access to Sochi for terrorists,” Mr. Kozak said. “Sochi is isolated from the rest of the Caucasus — Chechnya and other such regions — by mountains that are not easily passable.”

He said the Sochi Olympics would be a target for extremist groups around the world, not just those from the Caucasus. “Today, distance for terrorist organizations does not have much meaning,” he said.

I'm interested because, to my knowledge, this is the first time a major figure in the Russian government has acknowledged the fact that terrorists might step up their game as the Olympics draw closer.  I take some issue with the idea that Sochi would be a target from other terrorist groups from the around the world and not just from the Caucasus.  This may be true (Munich, 1972 comes to mind) but the odds are that the future attacks will be from domestic sources.  And Kozak knows this, but the idea that there are external enemies is one that is going to be, in my opinion, pushed ever more heavily as 2014 comes closer.  Russia's foreign policy places primacy on the right to do whatever is necessary to assure internal security and it's a lot easier to plant the idea that there may be external disruptions than to acknowledge the fact that you are having  difficulty with the internal version. 

Bloomberg Picks up on Terrorism in North Caucasus

Interesting perspective on what certainly seems to be an environment that is ripe for an escalation in terrorism leading up to the 2014 Winter Games, this time from Bloomberg.com.  The piece is something of a primer on the situation in the North Caucasus, touching on issues I've discussed to varying degrees (particularly Russia investing $15 billion on tourism in the region, which is something I really want to revisit).  It does also throw some numbers around, discussing the number of suicide bombings/bombers in the region over the last couple of years.  Plus, there's a bonus quote from Chechen head of government/Moscow-backed strongman/comedian Ramzan Kadyrov on the current state of security around Sochi: "There are no serious problems."  Comedy gold. 

All of that you can read for yourselves.  What really got my ski poles up was that the article is the first (at least in my reasonably-exhaustive search) to draw the line directly from the recent events in the Middle East/North Africa to an expected uptick in terror in the North Caucasus.  So, let's talk about that for a second because, really, it's just a throwaway couple lines. 

Grigory Shvedov, chief editor over at Caucasian Knot:

The uprisings across the Middle East may encourage extremists in the predominantly North Caucasus further, according to Shvedov.

“The successful turnover of elites in the Middle East is mesmerizing not just militants, but also hundreds of thousands of practicing Muslims” in the region, he said.

And that's it.  Now, I could spend 5,000 words getting into the specifics on these statements, but my refusal to do that is what separates me from actual academics.  Plus, nobody reads this as it is.  What I will do is throw a few thoughts at the wall and see what sticks. 

Doku Umarov, who heads the non-state Caucasus Emirate, has, as I understand it, at best a vague goal of uniting Muslims in an as yet undefined state under his rule.  There aren't even any clear boundaries for this state.  There are no goals the bring down Russia, simply to end its influence in the region and expel the Moscow-backed regional leaders. 

While some Muslims may, in face, be "mesmerized" by what is happening in the Middle East, Umarov was promising that there would be "rivers of blood," at the very latest, right around the time things got dicey for Mubarak.  Umarov and his followers have taken credit for last year's metro bombing in Moscow, the attack on Domodedovo airport and, from what I read, for the recent attack on Russian tourists.  The first certainly has nothing to do with unrest in the Middle East.  The last two, well, the connection is dubious at best. 

Now, Russia, after years of fighting in the North Caucasus, apparently decided on the innovative strategy addressing this issue through bribery, banking that they can subdue the region by easing the rampant unemployment and turning it into a tourism center.  It is clearly not working and, if Umarov gets his way, it won't get the chance to work.  And, unfortunately, I firmly believe that Medvedev will be forced by both internal and external (read:IOC) pressures to step up the military's presence as 2014 nears.  I think the attacks are going to continue and that I'm going to be writing about this an awful lot in the near future.

Medvedev Flails about for Sochi Threat Boogeyman

Over at Rueters (and, in fairness, a lot of other places) comes unsurprising news that Russian President Dimitri Medvedev has his eye on a certain special someone this Valentine month.  With Russia (and the IOC, privately) jumpy about the security situation for the Games, an apparently desperate Medvedev reached out to his old fling from the summer of 2008: Georgia!  I guess he was unsatisfied with how things ended.  Regardless, per Medvedev, in addition to unspecified internal threats to security (Muslims/dark people), in his mind the biggest risk rests in Georgia:

"Forces that would impede holding the Olympics must be identified and brought to justice, if we are talking about citizens of our country," Medvedev told his Security Council at a meeting in the games venue Sochi, up the Black Sea coast from Georgia.  "You all understand that there are also certain problems connected to our neighbour, Georgia."

Ah, 'certain problems.'  What might those be?  Ok, let's back up briefly.  You can read all the gory details of of Russia's issues with Georgia at the above link but I'll summarize the important stuff, as it relates to the 2014 Winter Olympics. 

There are two so-called 'breakaway' regions within Georgia: South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Before the fall of the Soviet Union, South Ossetia operated as the South Ossetian Autonomous Oblast within the Georgian Soviet Socialist Republic.  The South Ossetians declared independence after the fall and formed an unrecognized separatist government.  This led to a war with Georgia in 1991-1992, in which there were plenty of human rights violations to go around and one in which the South Ossetians were supported militarily by Russia.  Ultimately, an uneasy truce resulted, with Georgia and a South Ossetian government unrecognized by Georgia controlled different parts of the region.  This conflict flared up again in 2004 and again in 2007 and Georgia resolved to firm up control and, thus, the 2008 war. 

With post-Soviet Abkhazia, the situation is much the same.  A breakaway region of Georgia supported by Russia, there were conflicts after the fall and the 2008 war in South Ossetia spilled over into Abkhazia, with military support rendered by Russia. 

Georgia (much as Russia does when it comes to Chechnya, etc) resents Russian intrusion into what it considers to be internal matters in both regions, especially with regard to military support provided.  In August of 2008, Russia recognized the independence of both South Ossetia and Abkhazia and this thoroughly pissed off the Georgians.  Official diplomatic relations between Russia and Georgia are no more and that, briefly, is how we get to today.

And now, for the really juicy bit...

As the folks over at Nosochi2014.com remind us, the Sochi Games coincide with the 150th anniversary of what they term the 'Circassian Genocide,' though it has not been officially recognized as such by any international body that I know of.  They call for the removal of the Games from Sochi on grounds that Sochi is on the lands once inhabited by the Circassian people.  They assert that, at the conclusion of the Caucasian War in the mid-19th century (in which Tsarist Russia finally subdued much of the Caucasus), 400,000-1.5 millioni Circassians were deported and/or killed.  Russian government records do indicate that there were mass deportations of people from the Caucasus and the closest Russia has come to acknowledging this was a statement by Boris Yeltsin in 1994 affirming the 'legitimacy' of the Circassians resistance to Tsarist Russia, but explicitly refusing to acknowledge the genocide. 

And so, belatedly, to bring the issue full circle, Medvedev's current problem with the Georgians is that the Georgian Parliament is considering recognizing this act as genocide.  This is, no doubt, a response to public grumbling from Russian authorities about alleged collaboration between Georgia and al-Qaeda/Muslim extremists in carrying out terrorist attacks within Russia.  These accusations remain unsubstantiated.  And so it happens that a truly tragic story that deserves to be told is caught up in the mess that is Georgia-Russia relations in 2011. 

I am certain of only a few things in this world: 1) Russia is not going to acknowledge any 'genocide.  2) The IOC is not going to strip Russia of the Games.  3) This move by the Georgian Parliament is purely politcally motivated to get back at Russia for its support of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. 4) This will come up again after the next terroist act in Russia (and there will be one) and will provide convenient cover for the Russian government as they struggle to contain their own breakaway regions in the Caucasus.

It sure seems like 'foreign agents' have been in the news a lot lately, doesn't it?

FIFA Also Concerned about Security in Wake of Airport Attack

The day before the blast, FIFA president Sepp Blatter met with Russian soccer officials to sign what is called a Declaration of Appointment; essentially, this makes official Russia as the host of the 2018 World Cup.  Now, whether Russia should even be hosting the World Cup is a different argument for a different day (though the decision to let Russia host looks positively inspired in light of the dubious choice of Qatar in 2022) but the blast does bring to the forefront a primary concern FIFA has in awarding the event to Russia: an over-reliance on air travel.

The story I linked to notes this concern and you can read the full executive summary of Russia's bid evaluation here (pages 37-38).  I'll quote the relevant portion:

The bid’s transport plan is based mainly on the geographic clustering of its candidate Host Cities. The country’s vastness and its remoteness from other countries, coupled with the fact that the high-speed railway network is limited and would only link six candidate Host Cities by 2018, would put pressure on the air traffic infrastructure, potentially causing transfer challenges in view of the lack of alternative means of long-distance transport. The current air traffic situation is to be improved through major upgrades and capacity increases to the majority of the airports. However, any delay in the completion of the transport projects could impact on FIFA’s tournament operations an the proposed installation of temporary facilities could impose a high cost burden. In particular, a greater number of direct flight connections to major international airports would have to be made available from the majority of candidate Host City airports.

I'll translate that FIFA-speak into English: "Oh, shit, you can't get anywhere in Russia except on a plane.  They better improve their airports or we're screwed."

Now, if you're FIFA, in addition to the already obvious infrastructure problems, you're most likely looking at dramatically beefed-up security, longer lines, fears about another airport attack, etc.  Indeed, President Medvedev is already blaming "lax security" and The Economist is already reporting that the immediate move to force all persons entering Domodedovo airport to walk through metal detectors is already causing pileups which, of course, is its own security problem.  FIFA has to be thinking about another attack on a Russian airport during the World Cup, one that, if their documents are to be believed, could completely cripple the ability of all participants (players, media, fans) to get from one venue to another.  Will FIFA, which often demands carte blanche from its hosts, demand direct flights for the teams that bypass security?  Who knows?

Not to mention that you would have to believe that this incident is likely going to raise the cost of all future renovations and, at some point, you have to wonder when somebody is going to ask where all the money is going to come from. But that's a Russia-specific problem.

Regardless, no doubt both the IOC and FIFA will be watching to see how Russia responds to this crisis.  Privately, they're certainly sweating.

'We Live in a Dangerous World" says IOC Head Rogge

Yes, that's the ringing endorsement from IOC President Jacques Rogge, speaking in the aftermath of the Moscow airport bombing. I guess, what else can you say if you're Jacques Rogge? That you're utterly terrified at this point after two major terrorist incidents in fewer than 12 months? Follow the link to see the video.